2016 bellwether counties 2016 bellwether counties

They simply vote on merit. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. TIP: Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Found an error on our site? If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. . The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. It also backed Gov. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. But it's still indicative of widespread support. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. That's 14 in a row. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? 4. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. i.e. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Twitter Twitter In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Sumter County, . As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. (i.e. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. "They followed through the whole four years. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. 3. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Click here, for more. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. It's the wrong question. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Until this year. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. They're just facts about the vote. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Telegram Telegram Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Ron Elving . Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Election night is going to be information overload. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Really stop reading. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. But it's also not unprecedented. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. The divisions were everywhere. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Enter Donald Trump. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. 03:30. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. University of New Hampshire . Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Outstanding. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. The matters that way on their minds are real. 108,000 people. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Go on, look them up! Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. Here's why. But that's no longer the case. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Still, the state's worth watching. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Will That Last?]. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county.